Real-time win probabilities for rugby union and rugby league — every bookmaker price averaged, the margin stripped. Powered by the SkipOdds API.
Match-winner odds overstate every outcome — the bookmaker margin ("vig") is baked in, so the implied probabilities sum to more than 100%. ScrumSeek averages the surveyed prices per outcome and removes that margin, leaving the SkipOdds Index: the market's honest opinion of the match — three fair numbers when the books price the draw, two when they don't.
Every number on this page is served by the SkipOdds API — the same engine behind:
curl "https://skipodds.com/v1/rugby/fixtures?api_key=skipodds-demo-2026"
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Union & league · 29 bookmakers, de-vigged and refreshed continuously — internationals lead the board
| Match | Fair win probability | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRL Dolphins v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 2026-07-11 05:00 UTC · draw 4.4% |
56.8% | 38.9% | 4.4% |
| NRL Canterbury Bulldogs v Canberra Raiders 2026-07-11 07:30 UTC · draw 4.5% |
57.4% | 38.1% | 4.5% |
| NRL Sydney Roosters v Parramatta Eels 2026-07-11 09:35 UTC · draw 3.7% |
71.5% | 24.8% | 3.7% |
| NRL South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights 2026-07-12 04:00 UTC · draw 4.7% |
45.7% | 49.6% | 4.7% |
| NRL Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys 2026-07-12 06:05 UTC · draw 4.1% |
60.4% | 35.5% | 4.1% |
| NRL Melbourne Storm v Gold Coast Titans 2026-07-12 08:15 UTC · draw 3.9% |
70.0% | 26.0% | 3.9% |
| NRL Penrith Panthers v Brisbane Broncos 2026-07-16 09:50 UTC · draw 3.3% |
76.8% | 20.0% | 3.3% |
| NRL Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Newcastle Knights 2026-07-17 08:00 UTC · draw 4.0% |
55.0% | 41.0% | 4.0% |
| NRL Sydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm 2026-07-17 10:00 UTC · draw 4.1% |
61.0% | 34.9% | 4.1% |
| NRL Canberra Raiders v South Sydney Rabbitohs 2026-07-18 05:00 UTC · draw 4.2% |
52.6% | 43.1% | 4.2% |
| NRL New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons 2026-07-18 07:35 UTC · draw 3.1% |
78.5% | 18.3% | 3.1% |
| NRL Canterbury Bulldogs v Wests Tigers 2026-07-18 09:35 UTC · draw 3.9% |
64.3% | 31.8% | 3.9% |
| NRL Gold Coast Titans v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 2026-07-19 04:00 UTC · draw 4.0% |
35.0% | 61.0% | 4.0% |
| NRL Dolphins v North Queensland Cowboys 2026-07-19 06:05 UTC · draw 4.0% |
62.7% | 33.2% | 4.0% |
| NRL Wests Tigers v New Zealand Warriors |
6–32 Final |
Who the market is warming to — movement since lines opened
